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Summary: China's revised ship pollution regulation takes effect November 1 and puts abrasive fines, pit sludge and wash-down water into the waste ledger. Combined with an October PMI of 49.3 and shipbuilding still running above 53, the arithmetic on a shipyard's abrasive bill changes in three places. Here is where the money moves, and how to hold it.

A shipyard blast shop in China runs on two numbers: tonnes of steel blasted per week, and tonnes of abrasive bought per month. The new ship pollution regulation, effective November 1, does not touch the first number. It quietly raises the second.

The rule, in one paragraph

The Ministry of Transport's Order No. 17 of 2026 replaces the 2010 regulation, runs to seven chapters and 65 articles, and takes effect on November 1, 2026. It puts ship materials under statutory inspection, adds waste and sediment to the list of discharge objects, and moves tank cleaning and gas-freeing away from populated and busy waterways. Fuel supply now covers methanol, LNG and ammonia, not just oil.

For a blast shop, the operative change is the word sediment. What used to be floor sweepings and a dirty settling pit is now recorded waste with a weight and a destination.

The market did not make this easier

The official manufacturing PMI for October was 49.3, released on October 31, down 0.8 points from September. Production dropped to 49.8 and new orders to 49.4. New export orders fell to 48.7.

Shipbuilding is the exception. Railway, shipbuilding and aerospace equipment held production and new orders above 53.0, and equipment manufacturing stayed at 50.6. Meanwhile 20mm plate across 24 cities averaged 3,440 yuan per tonne on October 30, down 10 yuan, and Tangshan billet fell to 2,890 yuan including tax.

Read those two lines together: plate is cheaper, order books are full, and the compliance bar went up in the same week. Every tonne of abrasive now carries a disposal cost that nobody budgeted for in 2025.

Where cost one hides: fines you paid for twice

You buy abrasive by the tonne and you pay again to dispose of what it becomes.

A high-toughness steel shot produces 15 to 20 kg of fines per tonne consumed. A shot with poor toughness can produce two to three times that, and the difference shows up twice — once in media you replace early, and again in disposal weight.

Mali steel shot is produced to Q/HX 001-2026: non-spherical particles at or below 5 percent, density at or above 7.4 g/cm³, cycle life of at least 2,200 passes, sulphur and phosphorus at or below 0.03 percent. That specification exists to keep the fines line flat.

Measure it rather than assume it. Hold a clean tray under the separator return for 30 seconds. Fines between 2 and 5 percent of the sample is normal. Above 5 percent, either the media is breaking down or the separator is misadjusted, and both are cheaper to fix than to keep paying for.

Where cost two hides: pit volume

At 7.4 g/cm³ and above, steel shot settles quickly and the settling pit stays shallow. Angular steel grit cuts faster but wears into fines, and pit volume runs about 30 percent higher for the same work.

That matters more this month than last, because pit sludge now has a paper trail. Shops that switch to grit for speed without checking recovery end up paying for disposal twice over — in volume and in the labour of digging out a pit that should not be that full.

The fix is scheduling, not chemistry. Run grit G18 to G25 on heavy corrosion, switch to shot S330 to S460 for secondary blasting, and keep the blend at 20 to 30 percent grit. Blast a test plate, measure the profile at three points, and stay inside the 40 to 75 micron window that marine coatings expect.

Where cost three hides: the batch that changes mid-project

Consistency is invisible until it breaks. A batch with 8 percent non-spherical particles instead of 5 runs hotter, breaks sooner and changes the profile halfway through a hull.

When a yard compresses its schedule because tank work moved to outer berths, there is no slack to absorb that variance. This is the point where the cheapest quote becomes the expensive one.

Ask three questions of any supplier: what is the non-spherical particle limit, what is the hardness deviation across the batch, and does every lot ship with its own test report. Mali Steel Shot answers all three from a plant with 25 years in metallic abrasives, and holds standard grades in 28 warehouses across China for 72-hour delivery.

The practical move this week

Four items, half a day of work.

First, pull the test reports on media currently in stock and check the non-spherical ratio. Second, weigh a sample bag and screen it — anything above 5 percent fines is a supply problem, not a machine problem. Third, dig and weigh the settling pit, then reconcile a month of sludge against a month of purchases. Fourth, confirm the delivery radius of your supplier before the winter schedule tightens.

None of this requires new equipment. It requires knowing where the abrasive goes after it leaves the hopper, which is exactly what the new rule now asks in writing.

FAQ

Q: Is this rule aimed at shipyards or at ships?

A: Both. It regulates ships and the operations around them, including repair and construction. Yards are covered through the material inspection clause and through waste and sediment handling, not through the fuel supply clauses that dominate headlines.

Q: Will abrasive consumption go up because of the rule?

A: Consumption will not rise because of the regulation itself, but disposal cost will. Fines and pit sludge now carry documented handling and transport. A shop producing 20 percent less fines saves on both sides of the ledger.

Q: How often should the settling pit be cleaned under the new regime?

A: Weekly digging with a recorded weight per load is a workable baseline for a two-shift yard. The number that matters is reconciliation: a month of sludge weight should track a month of abrasive purchases within about 10 percent.

Q: What is the profile target for marine coating systems?

A: Sa 2.5 with an anchor profile between 40 and 75 microns suits most marine coating systems. A 20 to 30 percent angular grit blend gets there; pushing grit above 40 percent overshoots the window and raises paint consumption.

Mali Steel Shot (Wuhan Hongxin Lixin Metal Products), 25 years in metallic abrasives: alloy steel shot S230 to S780, stainless steel shot 0.3 to 2.5 mm, cut wire shot, angular steel grit G12 to G120. Website http://www.sisball.com/ , hotline 400-038-8928.